$6.8 billion needed to ready US for the next big quake

How a 7.8-magnitude earthquake might spread

along the San Andreas fault (Image: David McNew/Getty)

The recent magnitude-9.1 megaquake and the tsunami that followed it showed that Japan was not fully prepared for so violent a tremor. If even a country that suffers frequent earthquakes wasn't ready, what of the US, which itself contains several seismic hotspots?

Over the past two decades, the US has made considerable advances in fortifying its cities against quakes, but geologists and engineers agree that there is still much to be done. In a National Research Council (NRC) report published today, they have outlined just what that means.

The National Earthquake Resilience report is particularly concerned with the possibility of a "Katrina-like earthquake": not just a moderately damaging tremor, but a cataclysm rivalling the 1906 San Francisco quake, estimated at magnitude 7.9, which probably led to thousands of deaths.

Geologists fear that because of the US's relatively unshaken recent history, its citizens have been lulled into a false sense of security, believing that a devastating earthquake is unlikely to strike the country – although it's not even 50 years since Alaska felt the force of the second largest quake in recorded history. The magnitude-9.2 Prince William sound event led to 115 deaths in Alaska alone.

The NRC report recommends three major goals: raising understanding of earthquakes; developing cost-effective measures to reduce the effects of earthquakes on individuals, the built environment and society at large; and improving the earthquake resilience of communities nationwide. Over 20 years, reaching those goals is likely to cost $6.8 billion.